Amaxabiso eentsimbi ezixabisekileyo ebengathathi cala. Nangona amaxabiso egolide, isilivere, iplatinum kunye nepalladium ehlile emva kokwehla kwakutshanje, awazange anyuke.
Ndaqala umsebenzi wam kwimarike yeentsimbi ezixabisekileyo ekuqaleni kweminyaka yoo-1980, emva nje kokuba uNelson noBunker beye bazama ukufumana i-monopoly yesilivere. Ibhodi ye-COMEX yagqiba ekubeni itshintshe imithetho yeHunts, eyayisongeza kwizikhundla zekamva, isebenzisa i-margin ukuthenga okungakumbi kwaye inyusa amaxabiso esilivere. Ngo-1980, umthetho wokuvalwa kwemarike kuphela wayimisa imarike yeenkunzi kwaye amaxabiso ehla. IBhodi yabaLawuli be-COMEX ibandakanya abathengisi bezabelo abanempembelelo kunye neentloko zabathengisi beentsimbi ezixabisekileyo abaphambili. Besazi ukuba isilivere yayiza kuwa, uninzi lwamalungu ebhodi lwaqhwanyaza amehlo lwaza lwanqwala njengoko babesazisa iidesika zabo zorhwebo. Ngexesha leengxaki zesilivere, iinkampani eziphambili zenze ubutyebi bazo kwiingxaki eziphakame nezisezantsi. UPhilip Brothers, apho ndasebenza khona iminyaka engama-20, wenza imali eninzi kakhulu ngokurhweba ngeentsimbi ezixabisekileyo kunye neoyile kangangokuba wathenga uSalomon Brothers, iziko eliphambili lokurhweba ngeebhondi kunye neebhanki zotyalo-mali eWall Street.
Yonke into itshintshile ukusukela ngeminyaka yoo-1980. Ingxaki yezemali yehlabathi ka-2008 yavumela uMthetho weDodd-Frank ka-2010. Izenzo ezininzi ezinokuthi zibe zizenzo zokuziphatha okubi nezingafanelekanga ezazivumelekile kwixesha elidlulileyo ziye zaba zizinto ezingekho mthethweni, kwaye izohlwayo zabo badlulayo ziqala kwiintlawulo ezinkulu ukuya kwixesha lokuvalelwa entolongweni.
Okwangoku, uphuhliso olubalulekileyo kwiimarike zesinyithi ezixabisekileyo kwiinyanga zakutshanje lwenzeke kwinkundla yombuso yase-US eChicago, apho ijaji lifumene abaphathi ababini abaphezulu be-JPMorgan benetyala kwiityala ezahlukeneyo, kuquka ukukhohlisa, ukukhohlisa amaxabiso eemveliso kunye nokukhohlisa amaziko emali. . indlela. Amatyala kunye nezigwebo zinxulumene nokuziphatha okubi nokungavumelekanga ngokupheleleyo kwimarike yekamva lesinyithi esixabisekileyo. Umrhwebi wesithathu uza kujongana netyala kwiiveki ezizayo, kwaye abarhwebi abavela kwamanye amaziko emali sele begwetyiwe okanye befunyenwe benetyala ziijaji kwiinyanga nakwiminyaka embalwa edlulileyo.
Amaxabiso esinyithi axabisekileyo awayi ndawo. I-ETFS Physical Precious Metal Basket Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLTR) ibambe iintsimbi ezine ezixabisekileyo ezithengiswa kwicandelo le-CME COMEX kunye ne-NYMEX. Inkundla yakutshanje ifumene abasebenzi abaphezulu benkampani yokuthengisa iintsimbi ezixabisekileyo ekhokelayo kwihlabathi benetyala. Le arhente ihlawule isohlwayo esinzima, kodwa abaphathi kunye ne-CEO basinda kwisohlwayo esithe ngqo. UJamie Dimon yintloko ehlonitshwayo yaseWall Street, kodwa izityholo ezichasene neJPMorgan ziphakamisa umbuzo othi: Ngaba intlanzi ibolile ukususela ekuqaleni ukuya ekugqibeleni?
Ityala likarhulumente elichasene nabaphathi ababini abaphezulu kunye nomthengisi weJPMorgan livule ithuba lokuba imarike yesinyithi esixabisekileyo yeli ziko lezemali ilawule ihlabathi liphela.
Le arhente yenze isivumelwano norhulumente kudala ngaphambi kokuba ityala liqale, ihlawula isohlwayo esingazange sibonwe ngaphambili se-$920 yezigidi. Okwangoku, ubungqina obunikwe liSebe lezoBulungisa laseMelika kunye nabatshutshisi bubonise ukuba iJPMorgan “yenze inzuzo yonyaka ephakathi kwe-$109 yezigidi kunye ne-$234 yezigidi phakathi kowama-2008 nowama-2018.” Ngowama-2020, ibhanki yenze inzuzo ye-$1 yezigidigidi irhweba ngegolide, isilivere, iplatinum kunye nepalladium njengoko ubhubhane unyusa amaxabiso kwaye “wadala amathuba angazange abonwe ngaphambili e-arbitrage.”
I-JPMorgan lilungu eliphuma phambili kwimarike yegolide yaseLondon, kwaye amaxabiso ehlabathi amiselwa ngokuthenga nokuthengisa isinyithi ngexabiso laseLondon, kuquka namashishini e-JPMorgan. Le bhanki ikwangumdlali ophambili kwiimarike zekamva ze-COMEX kunye ne-NYMEX kunye nezinye iziko zorhwebo lwesinyithi esixabisekileyo kwihlabathi liphela. Abaxumi baquka iibhanki eziphambili, ii-hedge funds, abavelisi, abathengi kunye nabanye abadlali abaphambili kwimarike.
Ekuvezeni ityala lakhe, urhulumente ubophe ingeniso yebhanki kubathengisi kunye nabarhwebi ngabanye, abamizamo yabo iphumelele kakhulu:
Eli tyala liveze inzuzo enkulu kunye neentlawulo ngeli xesha. Ibhanki isenokuba ihlawule isohlwayo se-$920 yezigidi, kodwa inzuzo yayingaphezulu komonakalo. Ngo-2020, i-JPMorgan yenze imali eyaneleyo yokuhlawula urhulumente, yashiya ngaphezulu kwe-$80 yezigidi.
Ezona zityholo zinzima abajongene nazo abathathu beJPMorgan yayizi-RICO kunye neqhinga lokulwa, kodwa aba bathathu bakhululwa. Ijaji ligqibe kwelokuba abatshutshisi boluntu basilele ukubonisa ukuba injongo yayisisiseko sokugwetywa ngeqhinga lokulwa. Ekubeni uGeoffrey Ruffo wayemangalelwe ngezi zityholo kuphela, wakhululwa.
UMichael Novak kunye noGreg Smith bangomnye weendaba. Kwingxelo yabezindaba yomhla we-10 ka-Agasti 2022, iSebe lezoBulungisa laseMelika libhale lathi:
Ijaji lombuso weSithili esiseMantla e-Illinois namhlanje lifumene abathengisi ababini bezinto zexabiso zeJPMorgan benetyala lobuqhetseba, ukuzama ukukhohlisa amaxabiso kunye nokukhohlisa kangangeminyaka esibhozo kwisicwangciso sokukhohlisa imarike esibandakanya iikhontrakthi zexesha elizayo zezinto zexabiso zexabiso ezibandakanya amawaka eentengiselwano ezingekho mthethweni.
UGreg Smith, oneminyaka engama-57 ubudala, waseScarsdale, eNew York, wayengumphathi omkhulu kunye nomrhwebi kwicandelo leentsimbi ezixabisekileyo zaseNew York eJPMorgan, ngokutsho kwamaxwebhu enkundla kunye nobungqina obuvezwe enkundleni. UMichael Novak, oneminyaka engama-47 ubudala, waseMontclair, eNew Jersey, ngumlawuli ophetheyo okhokela icandelo leentsimbi ezixabisekileyo zehlabathi eJPMorgan.
Ubungqina bezobungcali bubonise ukuba ukususela malunga noMeyi 2008 ukuya ku-Agasti 2016, abamangalelwa, kunye nabanye abarhwebi kwicandelo leentsimbi ezixabisekileyo zeJPMorgan, babandakanyeka ekukhohliseni okukhulu, ekuguquleni imarike, nakwizicwangciso zobuqhophololo. Abamangalelwa babeka imiyalelo ababefuna ukuyirhoxisa ngaphambi kokuba iphunyezwe ukuze batyhalele ixabiso le-odolo ababefuna ukuyigcwalisa kwelinye icala lemarike. Abamangalelwa babandakanyeka kumawaka orhwebo lobuqhophololo kwiikhontrakthi zexesha elizayo zegolide, isilivere, iplatinum kunye ne-palladium ezithengiswa kwiNew York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) kunye neCommodity Exchange (COMEX), eziqhutywa ziinkampani ze-CME Group. bangena kwimarike ulwazi olungeyonyani nolukhohlisayo malunga nobonelelo lokwenyani kunye nemfuno yeekhontrakthi zexesha elizayo zeentsimbi ezixabisekileyo.
“Isigwebo sejaji sanamhlanje sibonisa ukuba abo bazama ukuxhaphaza iimarike zethu zemali zikarhulumente baya kutshutshiswa kwaye bathwalwe,” utshilo uMcebisi Jikelele uKenneth A. Polite Jr. weCandelo loLwaphulo-mthetho leSebe lezoBulungisa. “Phantsi kwesi sigwebo, iSebe lezoBulungisa ligwebe abarhwebi abalishumi bangaphambili bezimali baseWall Street, kuquka iJPMorgan Chase, iBank of America/Merrill Lynch, iDeutsche Bank, iBank of Nova Scotia, kunye noMorgan Stanley. Ezi zigwebo zibonisa ukuzinikela kweSebe ekutshutshiseni abo batshabalalisa ukuzithemba kwabatyali-mali kwintembeko yeemarike zethu zeempahla.”
“Kwiminyaka edlulileyo, abamangalelwa kuthiwa babeke amawaka ee-odolo zobuxoki zeentsimbi ezixabisekileyo, bedala amaqhinga okutsalela abanye kwizivumelwano ezimbi,” utshilo uLuis Quesada, umncedisi womlawuli weCandelo loPhando loLwaphulo-mthetho le-FBI. “Isigwebo sanamhlanje sibonisa ukuba nokuba inkqubo inzima kangakanani na okanye ixesha elide kangakanani na, i-FBI ifuna ukubazisa enkundleni abo babandakanyeka kwezo zenzo zolwaphulo-mthetho.”
Emva kwetyala leeveki ezintathu, uSmith wafunyanwa enetyala lokuzama ukulungisa amaxabiso, ityala elinye lobuqhetseba, ityala elinye lobuqhetseba bempahla, kunye namatyala asibhozo obuqhetseba bentambo ebandakanya iziko lezemali. UNovak wafunyanwa enetyala lokuzama ukulungisa amaxabiso, ityala elinye lobuqhetseba, ityala elinye lobuqhetseba bempahla, kunye namatyala ali-10 obuqhetseba bentambo ebandakanya iziko lezemali. Umhla wokugwetywa awukamiselwa okwangoku.
Abanye abathengisi bezinto zexabiso ezimbini zeJPMorgan, uJohn Edmonds noChristian Trunz, bagwetywe ngaphambili kumatyala anxulumene noko. Ngo-Okthobha ka-2018, u-Edmonds wavuma ityala elinye lokuqhatha impahla kunye nelinye lokuceba ukwenza ubuqhetseba bokudluliselwa kwentambo, ubuqhetseba bempahla, ukumisela amaxabiso, kunye nokukhohlisa eConnecticut. Ngo-Agasti ka-2019, uTrenz wavuma ityala elinye lokuqhatha kunye nelinye lokukhohlisa kwiSithili saseMpuma eNew York. U-Edmonds noTrunz balindele isigwebo.
NgoSeptemba ka-2020, i-JPMorgan yavuma ukuba yenze ubuqhetseba ngentambo: (1) urhwebo olungekho mthethweni lweekhontrakthi zexesha elizayo zesinyithi esixabisekileyo kwimarike; (2) urhwebo olungekho mthethweni kwiMarike yeXesha elizayo ye-US Treasury kunye neMarike yesibini ye-US Treasury kunye neMarike yeBond yesibini (i-CASH). I-JPMorgan yenze isivumelwano sokutshutshisa esilibazisiweyo seminyaka emithathu apho yahlawula ngaphezulu kwe-$920 yezigidi kwizohlwayo zolwaphulo-mthetho, ukutshutshiswa, kunye nokubuyiselwa kwamaxhoba, kunye ne-CFTC kunye ne-SEC zibhengeza izigqibo ezifanayo ngaloo mini inye.
Eli tyala liphandwe yiofisi ye-FBI yasekuhlaleni eNew York. ICandelo lokuQinisekisa uMthetho leKhomishini yoRhwebo lweeMpahla linike uncedo kule nyewe.
Eli tyala liphethwe ngu-Avi Perry, iNtloko yoBuqhetseba beMarike kunye noBuqhetseba obukhulu, kunye namaGqwetha oTyala uMatthew Sullivan, uLucy Jennings kunye noChristopher Fenton beCandelo loBuqhetseba leCandelo loLwaphulo-mthetho.
Ubuqhetseba obubandakanya iziko lezemali lulwaphulo-mthetho olukhulu kumagosa, oluya kuhlawuliswa isohlwayo esifikelela kwi-1 yezigidi zeerandi kunye nokuvalelwa entolongweni ukuya kuthi ga kwiminyaka engama-30, okanye zombini ezo zinto. Ijaji lifumanise uMichael Novak noGreg Smith benetyala lolwaphulo-mthetho oluninzi, iyelenqe kunye nokukhohlisa.
UMichael Novak ngumphathi ophezulu weJPMorgan, kodwa unabaphathi kwiziko lezemali. Ityala likarhulumente lixhomekeke kubungqina babarhwebi abancinci abaye bavuma ityala baza basebenzisana nabatshutshisi ukuze baphephe izigwebo eziqatha.
Okwangoku, uNovak noSmith banabaphathi kwiziko lezemali, abaphethe izikhundla ezifikelela kwi-CEO kunye nosihlalo uJamie Dimon. Okwangoku kukho amalungu ali-11 kwibhodi yabalawuli benkampani, kwaye isohlwayo se-$920 yezigidi ngokuqinisekileyo yayingumcimbi owabangela ingxoxo kwibhodi yabalawuli.
UMongameli uHarry Truman wakha wathi, “Uxanduva luphela apha.” Okwangoku, iinkolelo zikaJPMorgan azikavezwa elubala, kwaye ibhodi kunye nosihlalo/i-CEO bathule ngalo mba. Ukuba idola lihlala liphezulu, ngoko ke ngokwemigaqo yolawulo, ibhodi yabalawuli inomthwalo ubuncinane kaJamie Dimon, owahlawula i-$84.4 yezigidi ngo-2021. Ulwaphulo-mthetho lwezemali oluye lwenzeka kube kanye luyaqondakala, kodwa ulwaphulo-mthetho oluphindaphindwayo kwiminyaka esibhozo nangaphezulu lunye udaba. Okwangoku, konke esikuvileyo kumaziko emali anemali yemarike ephantse ibe yi-$360 yezigidigidi ziikriketi.
Ulawulo lwemarike alunto intsha. Ekuzikhuseleni kwabo, amagqwetha kaNovak noMnu. Smith athi olu qhinga yayiyeyona ndlela kuphela abarhwebi beebhanki, phantsi koxinzelelo oluvela kubaphathi lokunyusa inzuzo, abanokuncintisana ngayo nee-algorithms zekhompyutha kwixesha elizayo. Ijaji alizange lizamkele iingxoxo zokhuselo.
Ukuphathwa kakubi kwemarike akunto intsha kwiintsimbi ezixabisekileyo kunye neempahla, kwaye kukho ubuncinane izizathu ezibini ezilungileyo zokuba kutheni kuqhubeka:
Umzekelo wokugqibela wokungabikho konxibelelwano lwamazwe ngamazwe kwimiba yolawulo kunye nezomthetho unxulumene nemarike yehlabathi ye-nickel. Ngo-2013, inkampani yaseTshayina yathenga iLondon Metal Exchange. Ekuqaleni kuka-2022, xa iRashiya yahlasela iUkraine, amaxabiso e-nickel anyuke aya phezulu kakhulu ngaphezu kwe-$100,000 ngetoni. Ukunyuka kwakubangelwa kukuba inkampani yaseTshayina ye-nickel yavula indawo enkulu emfutshane, iqikelela ixabiso leesinyithi ezingezizo i-ferrous. Inkampani yaseTshayina ifumene ilahleko ye-$8 yezigidigidi kodwa yaphela iphuma nelahleko ye-$1 yezigidigidi kuphela. Le ntengiso iye yamisa okwethutyana urhwebo lwe-nickel ngenxa yengxaki ebangelwe linani elikhulu lezikhundla ezimfutshane. ITshayina neRashiya ngabadlali ababalulekileyo kwimarike ye-nickel. Okumangalisayo kukuba, iJPMorgan ikwiingxoxo zokunciphisa umonakalo ovela kwingxaki ye-nickel. Ukongeza, isiganeko sakutshanje se-nickel sajika saba sisenzo sokukhohlisa esabangela ukuba abathathi-nxaxheba abaninzi abancinci kwimarike baphulukane nelahleko okanye banciphise inzuzo. Inzuzo yenkampani yaseTshayina kunye nabaxhasi bayo bachaphazele abanye abathathi-nxaxheba kwimarike. Inkampani yaseTshayina ayikude kakhulu nokubanjwa ngabalawuli kunye nabatshutshisi e-US naseYurophu.
Nangona uthotho lwamatyala atyhola abarhwebi ngokuqhatha, ubuqhetseba, ukukhohlisa kwimarike kunye nezinye izityholo ziya kwenza abanye bacinge kabini ngaphambi kokuba benze imisebenzi engekho mthethweni, abanye abathathi-nxaxheba kwimarike abavela kwiindawo ezingalawulwayo baya kuqhubeka bekhohlisa imarike. Umhlaba ombi wezopolitiko unokwandisa kuphela ukuziphatha okukhohlisayo njengoko iTshayina neRashiya zisebenzisa imarike njengesixhobo soqoqosho nxamnye neentshaba zaseNtshona Yurophu naseMelika.
Okwangoku, ubudlelwane obuqhekekileyo, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwinqanaba eliphezulu kwiminyaka emininzi, kunye neziseko zokubonelela kunye nemfuno zibonisa ukuba isinyithi esixabisekileyo, ebesisoloko sikhula kangangeminyaka engaphezu kwamashumi amabini, siya kuqhubeka sisenza ixabiso eliphantsi neliphezulu. Igolide, isinyithi esixabisekileyo esiphambili, sehle ngo-1999 kwi-$252.50 kwi-ounce. Ukusukela ngoko, yonke inguqu enkulu ibe lithuba lokuthenga. IRashiya iphendula kwizohlwayo zoqoqosho ngokubhengeza ukuba igram enye yegolide ixhaswa yi-rubles ezingama-5,000. Ekupheleni kwenkulungwane edlulileyo, ixabiso lesilivere kwi-$19.50 lalingaphantsi kwe-$6 kwi-ounce. Iplatinum kunye ne-palladium zifunyanwa eMzantsi Afrika naseRashiya, nto leyo enokubangela iingxaki zokubonelela. Ingongoma ephambili kukuba isinyithi esixabisekileyo siya kuhlala sisixhobo esixhamlayo kukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokuphazamiseka kwezopolitiko.
Igrafu ibonisa ukuba i-GLTR inegolide ebonakalayo, isilivere, i-palladium kunye neebha zeplatinum. I-GLTR ilawula ngaphezulu kwe-$1.013 yeebhiliyoni kwiimpahla kwi-$84.60 ngesabelo ngasinye. I-ETF irhweba ngokomyinge wezabelo ezingama-45,291 ngosuku kwaye ihlawulisa umrhumo wolawulo we-0.60%.
Ixesha liza kuxela ukuba i-CEO ye-JPMorgan ihlawula nantoni na ngesohlwayo esiphantse sibe yi-$1 kunye nokugwetywa kwabarhwebi ababini abaphambili besinyithi esixabisekileyo. Kwangaxeshanye, imeko ekhoyo ngoku kwenye yeziko lezemali eliphambili kwihlabathi inceda ukugcina imeko injalo. Ijaji yesizwe iza kugweba uNovak noSmith ngo-2023 ngengcebiso yesebe lovavanyo ngaphambi kokuba bagwetywe. Ukungabikho kwerekhodi yolwaphulo-mthetho kunokubangela ukuba ijaji inike esi sibini isigwebo esingaphantsi kakhulu kuneso siphezulu, kodwa inani lithetha ukuba baza kukhonza isigwebo sabo. Abathengisi babanjwa bephula umthetho kwaye baya kuhlawula ixabiso. Nangona kunjalo, intlanzi idla ngokubola ukusuka ekuqaleni ukuya ekugqibeleni, kwaye abaphathi banokusinda kwimali ephantse ibe yi-$1 yezigidigidi. Okwangoku, ukuqhekezwa kwemarike kuya kuqhubeka nokuba i-JPMorgan kunye nezinye iziko zezemali ezinkulu zithatha amanyathelo.
Ingxelo yeHecht Commodity yenye yeengxelo zempahla ezipheleleyo ezikhoyo namhlanje ezivela kubabhali abaphambili kwicandelo leempahla, utshintshiselwano lwangaphandle kunye neentsimbi ezixabisekileyo. Iingxelo zam zeveki nganye zigubungela iintshukumo zemarike zeempahla ezahlukeneyo ezingaphezu kwama-29 kwaye zibonelela ngeengcebiso ze-bullish, ze-bearish kunye nezingakhethi cala, iingcebiso zorhwebo ezikhokelayo kunye neengcamango ezisebenzayo kubarhwebi. Ndinikezela ngamaxabiso amahle kunye novavanyo lwasimahla lwexesha elilinganiselweyo kubabhalisi abatsha.
U-Andy wasebenza eWall Street phantse iminyaka engama-35, kuquka neminyaka engama-20 kwicandelo lokuthengisa lePhilip Brothers (kamva yaba yiSolomon Brothers yaza yaba yinxalenye yeCitigroup).
Ukutyhilwa: Mna/thina asinazo izikhundla zesitokhwe, iinketho okanye ezinye izikhundla ezifanayo zeenkampani ezikhankanyiweyo kwaye andicebi ukuthatha ezo zikhundla kwiiyure ezingama-72 ezizayo. Ndibhale eli nqaku ngokwam kwaye liveza uluvo lwam. Andifumananga mbuyekezo (ngaphandle kweSeeking Alpha). Andinabudlelwane beshishini nayo nayiphi na inkampani edweliswe kweli nqaku.
Ingcaciso Eyongezelelekileyo: Umbhali ubambe izikhundla kwikamva, kwiinketho, kwiimveliso ze-ETF/ETN, nakwiisitokhwe zeempahla kwiimarike zeempahla. Ezi zikhundla zinde nezimfutshane zihlala zitshintsha imini yonke.